Hoping for a New AFC Representative in Super Bowl LIII

It all started on January 14, 1996. The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Indianapolis Colts by a 20-16 score to clinch a trip to Super Bowl XXX.

Nearly three-quarters of the Super Bowls since that AFC title game have featured one of three teams: the New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers, or the Denver Broncos. Two of those Bronco teams were represented by Peyton Manning, the same quarterback who helped take the Colts to Super Bowls XLI and XLIV.

So for the most part, we've been getting the same teams in the Super Bowl on the AFC side. In the cases of Manning, and the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady tandem, we've also been getting the same characters. I appreciate the intelligence of Belichick and the future Hall of Famer's domination over the NFL the past two decades, but I think it's time for some new blood now that Super Bowl LIII is on the horizon. My fingers are crossed that this is the year.

The Chiefs and Chargers have already clinched playoff spots, while the Texans, sixth in the AFC in pro-football-reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) entering today, are likely winners of the AFC South. The Patriots have looked beatable at times this season, and, though I won't count them out until the very end thanks to Brady and Belichick, that bodes well for teams like Kansas City and the Chargers, my personal favorites to end the reign of dominance by the AFC elite. Miami, Indianapolis, and Tennessee are still "in the hunt," and even Cleveland has a tiny itty-bitty smidge of a chance to make the playoffs (fivethirtyeight.com has the Browns at a two percent chance at the postseason after tonight's victory).

Just over 40% of the last 44 Super Bowls have featured an AFC team besides the Patriots, Steelers, or Broncos. Perhaps Super Bowl LIII is the one where the Chargers, Chiefs, or Texans break through. The Chiefs and Chargers could make deep runs, while other AFC squads are up-and-coming and could make a stab at the playoffs for the first time in a long time.

But even if not, there's always next year. After all, those Browns are definitely getting better.

*Thanks to pro-football-reference.com for providing the score and information on the Steelers-Colts AFC Championship Game, and for the Excel spreadsheets that helped me figure out the frequency of AFC Super Bowl participants. The sports-reference sites are excellent and highly recommended!*

Derrick Henry vs. Marshawn Lynch: Who Had the More Beastly Run?

Derrick Henry last night ran for 238 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 14.0 yards per carry on just 17 total rushes in a Thursday Night Football performance that helped officially knock the Jacksonville Jaguars out of the playoff hunt. His night included a 99-yard touchdown run that tied Tony Dorsett for the longest in the history of the NFL and drew a comparison by a large sports media company to former Seattle Seahawk running back Marshawn Lynch's 67-yard "Beast Mode" run in the 2011 NFL wild-card round. I don't mean to disrespect either athlete's skills and accomplishments, but I have to agree with those who thought the Lynch run was better.

Henry's rush had the edge in pure stats, with him running 99 yards compared to Lynch's 67, but that's one of the few advantages the former Heisman winner has over Beast Mode, and it's a relatively poor argument at that. As multiple others pointed out, Lynch has the advantage in game leverage, since his rush came in the first round of the playoffs. By contrast, Henry's run came on a Thursday night during the regular season between two teams fighting for their playoff lives. Not only that, but Lynch's rush came in the fourth quarter of a close playoff game, and extended his team's lead to 11 points.

Then there's the sheer physicality of Lynch's run: he broke through multiple tackles on the play, whereas it didn't really seem like anyone wanted to try bringing Henry down. By my count, Lynch broke three to seven good, legitimate tackle attempts. Henry didn't break any, though he still deserves credit for strong-arming Leon Jacobs without the benefit of proper leverage.

In the end, Lynch's run was just better. He had the benefit of situational leverage in a postseason game, and ran with more power and physicality than Henry, though both athletes certainly earned a place in the game's history in the pantheon of great NFL runners.

*Stats on Lynch's Beast Mode run courtesy pro-football-reference.com play index.*

Thursday Night Football: Can Saints vs. Cowboys Create a New TNF Scheduling Template?

Football is awesome. Saturdays with Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma. Sundays with the Patriots, Colts, and 49ers. Between Thursday and Monday nights every fall, there are thousands of games.

But Thursday night NFL games can be tough. Players aren't at their best because they played three days earlier. Coaches' and athletes' brains haven't been able to take in the game plan information that they'd usually have five to seven days to create and absorb. And, though this year seems to have been a bit of an exception, games can get sluggish, and offenses sometimes disappear. But tonight, when the Saints visit the Cowboys, there won't be any schedule-induced fatigue.

That's because New Orleans and Dallas played a full week ago.

So far this year, there have been 14 Thursday football games played, including the day games that kicked off before the Falcons and Saints played on Thanksgiving Night. With the exception of Week 1, when the Eagles and Falcons were coming off seven-month byes, each team this season playing a Thursday Night Football game also played three days prior, on the previous Sunday.

Enter tonight's Saints-Cowboys matchup.

With the Cowboys playing their traditional Thanksgiving Day game in Week 12, and the Saints kicking off just a few hours later, both teams have had the requisite six days to fully recover from last week and prepare to play again tonight. I think it would be better, and safer, to have two well-rested, well-prepared teams facing off every Thursday night.

I know this is a lot easier in theory than in practice. The NFL schedulers have a difficult job creating a perfect 16-game schedule for 32 teams, each of whom has just 17 weeks to play a specific set of 13 opponents. Imagine having to add a new wrinkle: any team playing on a Thursday needs to have either a bye or another Thursday game the week prior to kicking off on TNF. 

Without actually making up a schedule, I'm going to guess that such a thing is impossible, at least for every week. I think it would be great, though, if the schedule-makers could throw a few wrinkles into their work. Thanksgiving, for instance, is one of the most sacred and traditional of NFL holidays, when Detroit and Dallas each play a home game. Keeping that custom should be an important agenda item for the NFL. Maybe the Lions and Cowboys can have a bye week before they have their holiday matchups, or maybe they could even play each other on Thursday Night Football the week before the fourth Thursday of November, giving them a full week of rest and practice prior to their Thanksgiving games. Hey, it's an idea, one that could help solve any safety issues and keep the newest NFL tradition of Thursday Night Football going. Remember, football is awesome!